ÿþ<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns:mv="http://macVmlSchemaUri" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"> <head> <meta name=Title content=""> <meta name=Keywords content=""> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=unicode"> <meta name=ProgId content=Word.Document> <meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 14"> <meta name=Originator content="Microsoft Word 14"> <link rel=File-List href="index_files/filelist.xml"> <link rel=Edit-Time-Data href="index_files/editdata.mso"> <!--[if !mso]> <style> v\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} o\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} w\:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);} .shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:DocumentProperties> <o:Author>d </o:Author> <o:LastAuthor>d </o:LastAuthor> <o:Revision>11</o:Revision> 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div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;} --> </style> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1027"> <o:colormru v:ext="edit" colors="maroon"/> <o:colormenu v:ext="edit" fillcolor="none"/> </o:shapedefaults></xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'> <div class=WordSection1> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span>, Ph.D.</span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><br clear=all> Assistant Professor of Political Science</span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://pgs.clas.asu.edu/"><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>School of Politics and Global Studies</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, </span><a href="http://www.asu.edu/"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Arizona State University</span></a><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><br clear=all style='page-break-before:always'> </span> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902</span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><a href="mailto:firstname.siroky@asu.edu"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>firstname.siroky@asu.edu</span></a><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><a href="https://webapp4.asu.edu/directory/person/1580459"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>https://webapp4.asu.edu/directory/person/1580459</span></a><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> <hr size=2 width="100%" align=center> </span></div> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellspacing=3 cellpadding=0 width=698 style='width:9.7in;mso-cellspacing:3.0pt;margin-left:-.5pt;mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top: .01gd;text-align:center;background:#E6E6E6'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#C5000B'>Bio</span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black'>David <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span> is Assistant Professor of Political Science in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science and M.A. in Economics from Duke University and was then Henry Hart Rice Fellow at Yale University before arriving at ASU. <span class=SpellE>Siroky's</span> research is concerned with three themes. The first focuses on group formation and dissolution, ethnic conflict and civil war dynamics. </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";color:black'>The second theme concerns the relationship between political change and&nbsp;instability, and the third is research methodology, especially efforts to integrate statistical modeling, particularly non-parametric methods, with formal theory and qualitative information. He is working on a book</span><span style='font-size:13.5pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";color:black'> </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";color:black'>about secession that joins these research interests. <o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top: .01gd;text-align:center;background:#E6E6E6'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#C5000B'>C.V.</span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><a href="https://webapp4.asu.edu/myprofile/cv.do?eid=1580459"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung Light";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#DC1C43'>PDF available here</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung Light";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:#DC1C43'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top: .01gd;text-align:center;background:#E6E6E6'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#C5000B'>Research</span></b><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span>, </span></b><u><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>After Secession: Dynamics of Identity Formation and Nationalist Violence</span></u><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> [Book Project]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span> </span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>and <span class=SpellE>Valeriy</span> <span class=SpellE>Dzutsev</span>,  Rational or Reckless? Georgia s <span class=SpellE>Zugzwang</span> in the Caucasus, <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a href="http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/cnap">Nationalities Papers</a></i>, 2012. <span style='color:red'>[</span><a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/NP2012proof3.pdf"><span class=GramE>pre</span>-print here</a><span style='color:red'>] [<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00905992.2012.685063"><span class=GramE>online</span> first</a>]<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:red'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:8.0pt; font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Although the 2008 Russian-Georgian war was a military defeat for Georgia, it has only reinforced Georgia s westward trajectory. One noteworthy difference from Georgia s pre-war policy is a new regional strategy the North Caucasus Initiative that seeks to create a soft power alternative to Russia s military dominance in the region. We suggest that this approach is rational rather than reckless, as some critics have claimed. It represents a carefully calculated strategy that is already benefiting Georgia and from which all concerned parties, including Russia, stand to gain. </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>If the South and North Caucasus were more open and less divided a direction in which this new initiative appears to point the Caucasus could become more prosperous and more stable. That would serve Russia s long-term interest by significantly reducing the cost of subsidies to sustain and stabilize the volatile region. </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Foreign Policy; Soft Power; Democratization; Asymmetric Strategies; Violence; Russia; Caucasus</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span>,</span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>  Each Man for Himself? Rival Theories of Alliance Economics in the Early State System, </span><a href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title%7Econtent=t713640174%7Elink=cover"><span class=SpellE><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Defence</span></i></span><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> and Peace Economics</span></i></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, 2012. <span style='color:red'>[</span></span><a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/DPESiroky2011.pdf"><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>pre</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:red'>-print here</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>] [<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.596654#preview"><span class=GramE>online</span> first</a>]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:8.0pt; font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: When military alliances are expensive, they naturally raise distributional issues. This article considers two theories to explain how much a state will voluntarily contribute to the economic burdens of defense. Empirical work has relied largely on data from the twentieth century. This article provides an out-of-sample test to evaluate the models. Using data on the Quintuple Alliance, the results are more consistent with the predictions of the joint products model than the pure public goods model. Due to credible commitment problems, and intra-alliance cleavages, I argue that we should not expect substantial free riding in most conventional military alliances. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Alliances; Public Goods; Joint Products Model; Defense Economics; Free-riding; Burden-sharing; Europe </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Microsoft Sans Serif"'>Ï%</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Jason <span class=SpellE>Guss</span> and </span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span>,</span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>  Living with Heterogeneity: </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua"'>Bridging the Ethnic Divide in Bosnia and Beyond, <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><a href="http://www.brill.nl/comparative-sociology">Comparative Sociology</a></i>, 2012. </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>[<u><a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/CS2012proof.pdf"><span class=GramE><span style='color:red'>pre</span></span><span style='color:red'>-print here</span></a></u>]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Short of partition, many scholars hold that consociational arrangements are the most effective democratic institutional mechanisms to manage ethnic differences and maintain peace in nations and groups recently engaged in violent ethnic conflict. Numerous countries have implemented consociational arrangements to redress identity-based conflicts over recognition and resources, but the empirical record is mixed. Restoring moderate politics and democratic order in ethnically divided societies after war is difficult. Consociationalism, however, is usually not the best or the only option. Consociationalism fails as a viable post-conflict political system because it tends to reinforce centrifugal politics and to reify identity-based cleavages. The implementation of centripetal social and institutional reforms, which foster political and economic incentives for communities to reintegrate refugees, diversify existing populations, and engage in coalition politics, is more likely to restore moderation and minimize the risk of renewed ethnic violence. We explore these arguments using the critical case of Bosnia, drawing on examples from other parts of the world that have faced similar challenges. We argue that efforts to balance majority rule and the rights of the constituent peoples in Bosnia have created an unwieldy power-sharing architecture that satisfies none of the parties and is unable to govern. Post-war and deeply divided democracies, such as Bosnia, require reforms that move towards a centripetal, incentives-based approach to institutional design.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span></span><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Institutional design; Divided societies; Consociationalism; Centripetal Incentives; Ethnic Violence</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Lucida Grande"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span></span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> and Davit <span class=SpellE>Aprasidze</span>, </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>&quot;Guns, Roses and Democratization: Huntington s Secret Admirer in the Caucasus<i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>,&quot; </i></span><a href="http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/13510347.asp"><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>Democratization</span></i></a><i style='mso-bidi-font-style: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, </span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>2011.</span><a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/democ2011.pdf"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>[<span class=GramE>pre</span>-print here]</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'> [</span><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2011.579514"><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:red'>online</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";color:red'> first</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: Georgia is the most democratic country in the Caucasus, but arguably its democratization has also been riddled by <span class=SpellE>Huntingtonian</span> developmental crises, resulting in ethnic conflicts and civil wars. We argue that variation in the type of political instability is best understood by focusing on the interaction between nationalism and political institutionalization rather than on their independent effects. We show that <span class=SpellE>Gamsakhurdia s</span>  state-breaking nationalism, coupled with political deinstitutionalization, produced separatist and centrist civil wars. When Saakashvili s  state-making nationalism enhanced state capacity, it marginalized the opposition and rekindled frozen separatist conflicts, but stronger administrative institutions enabled the government to avert another revolutionary regime change. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Democratization; Nationalism; Institutions; State formation; Nation building; Caucasus</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'> <o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Yoav</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> <span class=SpellE>Gortzak</span> and <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span></b>,  Prometheus Bound? On the Use of Indigenous Forces in Third-Party State Building, </span><a href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title%7Econtent=t713735027%7Edb=all"><span class=SpellE><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Ethnopolitics</span></i></span></a><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>,</span></i><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> 2011. <span style='color:red'>[<a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/ep2011.pdf"><span class=GramE>pre</span>-print here</a>]<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:red'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: We discuss the tradeoffs involved in relying on indigenous forces during third-party state building campaigns. T</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>he early transfer of coercive capacity to local forces is an essential element in successful third-party state-building but it risks creating armed forces that may turn against third-party state builders and</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'> </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>undermine long-term stability in those states. Darden and <span class=SpellE>Mylonas</span> call this t</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>he Promethean dilemma. We argue that this </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>dilemma varies significantly in its severity, and arises</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'> predominantly </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>when third parties allow or promote the rise of independent local forces beyond</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'> </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>their control. The historical record supports this important caveat: third parties have</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'> </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Times'>been able to raise effective local counterinsurgency forces when they have retained operational control over such forces, when they have put those forces under competent leadership, and when they have controlled recruitment.</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Times'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Insurgency, Indigenous Forces, Third-Party State-Building, Nation-Building, Violence</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>John <span class=SpellE>Cuffe</span> and <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span></b>,  </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Paradise Lost: Autonomy and Separatism, in A. <span class=SpellE>Pavkovic</span> and J.P. <span class=SpellE>Casteban</span> (Eds.), </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Secessionism-Separatism-Europe-Asia-Politics/dp/0415667747"><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'>To Have a State of One s Own</span></i></a>: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Secessionism-Separatism-Europe-Asia-Politics/dp/0415667747"><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'>Secessionism and Separatism in Europe and Asia </span></i></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>, <span class=SpellE>Routledge</span>, 2011. </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'>[<span class=GramE>pre</span>-print from author upon request]</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Does political autonomy satisfy the demand for more self-determination, or rather foster the capacity and whet the appetite for independence? Some scholars see autonomy as the main mechanism to resolve tensions and redistributive issues between the central government and <span class=GramE>spatially-concentrated</span>, culturally-distinct groups. Others argue that autonomy actually exacerbates the problem of self-determination, for it cultivates the capacity for self-rule without significantly reducing the desire for more of it. We suggest that the implicit reference category_non-autonomy_is too heterogeneous to serve as a useful baseline for evaluating this debate, since it contains both <span class=SpellE>i</span>) groups that have never had autonomy and ii) groups that had autonomy, but lost it.&nbsp; While never autonomous groups may be unlikely to mobilize due to a lack of collective action capacity, and currently autonomous groups may possess the capacity though lack the desire, groups that have lost autonomy retain both powerful incentives and the capability to strive for secession. Lost autonomy fosters ethnic resentment, reduces the viability of using non-violent strategies, and significantly weakens the central government_s ability to make credible commitments. Moreover, retracting autonomy does not significantly curb the group_s collective action capacity that was gained under autonomy, and may even increase the cost of free riding, thus making it a particularly powerful basis for secession. We develop and test this argument adopting a multi-method approach. Drawing upon a sample that includes currently autonomous, formerly autonomous and never-autonomous minority groups in Europe and Asia, the results indicate that formerly autonomous groups are indeed the most likely to secede, while currently autonomous are significantly less so, and never-autonomous groups are the least likely to secede. We then explore these findings through a qualitative study, covering first intra-regional variation in Eurasia and then sub-national variation in the South Caucasus, before concluding with implications for future research.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Political decentralization and recentralization; Autonomy; Separatism; Eurasia</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight: normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";color:red'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span></span></b><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>&quot;Explaining Secession: Toward an Analytical Framework,&quot; in A. <span class=SpellE>Pavkovic</span> and P. <span class=SpellE>Radan</span> (eds.) </span><a href="http://www.ashgatepublishing.com/default.aspx?page=637&amp;calctitle=1&amp;pageSubject=483&amp;sort=pubdate&amp;forthcoming=1&amp;lang=cy-gb&amp;title_id=8941&amp;edition_id=12050"><span class=SpellE><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Ashgate</span></i></span><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"'> Research Companion on Secession</span></i></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, <span class=SpellE>Ashgate</span>, 2010<span class=GramE>.[</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><a href="http://davidsiroky.faculty.asu.edu/Siroky2011EXPSECpreprint.pdf"><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";color:#DC2300'>pre-print here]</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: I develop a general multilevel analytical framework to analyze the problem of secession. This theoretical framework organizes diverse strands of the scholarly literature and provides a parsimonious structure into which new studies and instantiations of secession can be fitted and understood. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: Secession; Multilevel Framework; Ethnic groups, Divided states, Foreign actors<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'>Ï%</span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>David S. <span class=SpellE>Siroky</span></b>, </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>&quot;Navigating Random Forests and related advances in algorithmic modeling,&quot; </span><a href="http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&amp;version=1.0&amp;verb=Display&amp;handle=euclid.ssu/1257431567"><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family: "Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"'>Statistics Surveys</span></i></a><span style='font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>, 3, 2009, pp. 147-163. [</span><a href="http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&amp;version=1.0&amp;verb=Display&amp;handle=euclid.ssu/1257431567"><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>available</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> here</span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Apple LiSung";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:8.0pt; font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Abstract: This article addresses current methodological research on non-parametric Random Forests. It provides a brief intellectual history of Random Forests that covers CART, boosting and bagging methods. It then introduces the primary methods by which researchers can visualize results, the relationships between covariates and responses, and the out-of-bag test set error. In addition, the article considers current research on universal consistency and importance tests in Random Forests. Finally, several uses for Random Forests are discussed, and available software is identi_ed. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>Keywords: CART, Bagging, Boosting, Random Forests, Algorithmic methods, Non-<span class=SpellE>parametrics</span>, Ensemble and Committee methods.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Mathematical Reviews (<span class=SpellE>MathSciNet</span>): <a href="http://www.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=2556872">MR2556872</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span class=SpellE><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Zentralblatt</span></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> MATH: <a href="http://www.zentralblatt-math.org/zmath/en/search/?q=an:1190.62100&amp;format=complete">1190.62100</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Digital Object Identifier: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-SS033">doi<span class=GramE>:10.1214</span>/07-SS033</a><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;tab-stops:28.0pt 56.0pt 84.0pt 112.0pt 140.0pt 168.0pt 196.0pt 224.0pt 3.5in 280.0pt 308.0pt 336.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Project Euclid: <a href="http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ssu/1257431567"><span class=SpellE>euclid.ssu</span>/1257431567<span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Times'> </span></a></span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Book Antiqua";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:14;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td width=1223 valign=top style='width:1222.5pt;padding:4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt 4.0pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:.1pt;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Lucida Grande"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p style='margin-top:.1pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p> </div> </body> </html>